Last Updated on 14 Apr 2022 6:47 pm (UK Time)
Many philosophers and political thinkers have acknowledged that historical past repeats itself (together with Karl Marx). Whilst they meant when it comes to life typically, we don’t study from our errors, this may be utilized to the Champions League. If a sure factor (reminiscent of no staff has ever overturned a five-goal deficit within the Champions League) then there could also be a motive for it.
By wanting on the historical past of the Champions League, notably since 1992 (when it modified from the 16 staff European Cup) I’ll take a look at sure details which will make constructive studying for followers of the 4 semi-finalists within the Champions League, in an effort so as to add some previous context to the rarity of sure occasions occurring.
Cool reality: In the twelve ties main as much as the semi-final, six have been gained by the facet which have performed at residence within the second leg and 6 have been gained by the staff that’s away within the second leg.
Semi Final 1 – Real Madrid vs Manchester City
The first semi-final will happen between the 13 instances winners Real Madrid and Manchester City, one of many sides but to win the Champions League. The first leg will happen on Tuesday twenty sixth April on the Etihad, with the return leg on Wednesday 4th May on the Bernabeu.
Before going into either side’s personal details, it is very important take a look at their face to face file to gauge the relative success of every facet towards the opposite previously.
Their face to face file is similar:
2 Wins every and a pair of attracts.
To add to Manchester City’s declare they knocked out Real Madrid with their two victories in 2019/2020 final 16, on path to shedding to FC Porto within the quarter-finals. Both matches completed 2-1.
Real Madrid does have a historical past of beating Manchester City within the semi-final of the Champions League with a 1-0 win within the 2nd leg of this stage within the 2015/2016 competitors, this was Manuel Pellegrini’s final season on the membership.
Their different two matches got here in Manchester City’s ill-fated debut marketing campaign wherein in a part of shedding to Real Madrid (Away) 3-2, a last-minute Cristiano Ronaldo objective sealing the three factors, and a 1-1 draw at residence, they completed 4th.
*What is vital to notice is that Pep’s Manchester City have solely ever overwhelmed Real Madrid, which will probably be a lift to the Citizens.
Manchester City (third UEFA Champions League Semi-Final)
The Blue half of Manchester survived a bruising contest with Atletico Madrid to succeed in their second consecutive Champions league semi-final
What details will present Manchester City followers with hope of successful their first ever Champions League?
- Real Madrid’s semi ultimate file within the Champions League is common
Since 1994/1995, Real Madrid have made 14 Champions League, successful seven of them and shedding the opposite seven. They usually are not utterly formidable at this stage within the competitors and misplaced their earlier semi-final, towards the facet they beat to make this 12 months’s semi-final, Chelsea.
Manchester City will take some consolation that regardless of Real Madrid making eight consecutive semi-finals between 2011/2012 and 2017/2018, they solely made 4 finals in that point.
2. This is the one knock-out stage of the competitors Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City facet have by no means misplaced at
Much has been made about Pep’s failure to win the Champions League with Manchester City, regardless of successful three Premier League titles and amassing (198 factors in 2017/2018 and 2018/2019) he’s but to convey the trophy the City followers crave essentially the most.
He has fallen at just about each hurdle, 2016-2017 (his first season) his costly Manchester City facet fell within the final sixteen to an AS Monaco facet that boasted the likes of Kylian Mbappe, Fabinho and Radamel Falcao. Despite two of those gamers turning into two of the highest gamers of their place (no prizes for guessing which two I’m referring to), his facet ought to have comfortably dispatched of the French facet, after beating them 5-3 at residence earlier than struggling a 3-1 defeat with their two beforehand talked about Mbappe and Fabinho scoring and failed Chelsea signing Bakayoko sealing the away targets win for AS Monaco.
In their 100 level season, 2017-2018, they fell to a different one among this 12 months’s Champions League semi-finalists, Liverpool. Despite thumping them 5-0 on the Etihad in September, the facet who had misplaced 4-3 at Anfield to finish their unoverwhelmed season, who defeated within the quarter-finals over two legs, being shocked 3-0 at Anfield earlier than a 2-1 reverse on the Etihad (5-1 agg).
The subsequent season their hopes have been dashed by Tottenham of all sides, because the North London facet gained 1-0 at their new stadium earlier than a dramatic Raheem Sterling objective was disallowed for Sergio Aguero being offside within the build-up, Tottenham went by way of on away targets as a 4-3 defeat was sufficient to see them by way of.
Quarter-finals as soon as once more stopped Pep and Man City within the one-legged match as a result of pandemic, shedding to Lyon 3-1, with a Moussa Dembele brace as soon as agin that means they fell wanting the semi-finals.
Last season they lastly made the ultimate, after defeating German sides Borussia Monchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund within the final 16 and quarter-finals (4-0 and 4-2) earlier than a 4-1 combination win over PSG. Their defeat within the ultimate to Chelsea mark some progress as in Pep’s reign they’ve by no means misplaced at an earlier stage of the competitors.
Under Pep, their progress have by no means regressed, so if this sample continues then they need to at the least make the ultimate.
3. The final facet to make a ultimate after shedding the earlier one, triumphed
Whilst this reality depends on Manchester City overcoming Real Madrid, they will take consolation from Liverpool’s run within the 2018-2019 season.
After a crushing defeat wherein Liverpool noticed their probabilities of a sixth title taken away by Real Madrid (3-1) in Kyiv, the Redmen as soon as once more made the ultimate and defeated Tottenham 2-0 within the ultimate in Madrid.
Should Manchester City overcome a Karim Benzema impressed Real Madrid then the historical past in that case is on their facet with Bayern Munich doing the identical in 2013 after shedding to Chelsea within the Allianz Arena, in what has been known as the Didier Drogba ultimate, in 2012 earlier than overcoming Klopp’s Borussia Dortmund at Wembley because of a late Arjen Robben winner (this was extra poignant as Robben had an extra-time penalty saved by Petr Cech in that 2012 ultimate.)
Only twice within the historical past of the European Cup has a facet misplaced two consecutive finals in two years (with Juventus doing so in 1996-1997 to Dortmund and 1997-1998 to Real Madrid and Valencia in 1999-2000 and 2000-2001).
In distinction, Liverpool (2018 to 2019, Bayern Munich 2012 to 2013, Milan 1993 to 1994) with groups reminiscent of Juventus successful their subsequent ultimate after shedding in 1983, Chelsea in 2009 and AC Milan in 2005.
4. Pep has a wonderful face to face file towards Carlo Ancelotti
Pep has gained 4 matches out of six towards the Italian supervisor, along with his solely defeats coming to the all-conquering Real Madrid facet of 2013-2014 after they misplaced 5-0 on combination. In essence, Carlo has by no means overwhelmed Pep with Cristiano Ronaldo and regardless of Benzema’s purple patch, he’s not prime Cristiano Ronaldo.
5. Manchester City’s file in Spain is spectacular
Manchester City has not misplaced in Spain since 2016, in a humbling return to the Camp Nou for Pep Guardiola, the match completed 4-0 as Bravo was despatched off for dealing with the ball exterior the realm, while they haven’t performed many they’ve overwhelmed Real Madrid within the Champions League final 16 on the Bernabeu in 2020 and have been actually decided to not lose to Atletico Madrid.
Their 0-0 draw noticed them by way of and if they will do the identical in Madrid, they are going to be by way of to their second Champions League ultimate.
Real Madrid (fifteenth Champions League Semi-Final, thirty first European Cup Semi Final)
- Pep Guardiola has misplaced three out of his final 4 Champions League Semi-Finals
With the success over PSG final season, Pep Guardiola overcame his run of three semi-final exits in a row. The former Bayern Munich supervisor fell at this hurdle in all of his three seasons with the Bavarian facet.
To add to this he misplaced to Spanish opposition each time, with a 5-0 combination loss to Real Madrid in 2013-2014, shedding to former facet Barcelona 5-2 on combination in 2014-2015 and on away targets (2-2) within the 2015-2016 season to Atletico Madrid.
Further including to this, is that on two of those events the facet they misplaced to gained the ultimate (Real Madrid and Barcelona) with the opposite time being the second well-known Madrid Champions League derby in 2015-2016, determined by Cristiano Ronaldo’s penalty within the shoot-out.
All in all so far as historical past goes beating Pep in a semi-final has led to success within the ultimate and his file in semi-finals is 3-5, along with his success at Barcelona each being on the expense of Manchester United.
2. Pep Guardiola has by no means gained again to again Champions League semi-finals
Another Pep associated reality, the Manchester City supervisor has by no means made two Champions League finals in a row, making one each different 12 months at Barcelona and never making a ultimate at Bayern Munich.
With his success final season towards Paris Saint-Germain, he must break a sample that has dogged him for the final 14 years in administration and eventually make a consecutive ultimate look.
3. Real Madrid’s Champions League Final Record is spectacular
Should Real Madrid beat Manchester City, they will take consolation from the very fact they haven’t misplaced a Champions League Final. You must return to the 1980/1981 season to their final European cup ultimate defeat when Alan Kennedy of Liverpool scored the one objective of the sport to provide the Mersey-siders their third European Cup.
Since the European Cup was shaped in 1955, they’ve a 14-3 file within the ultimate of the competitors, successful the primary 5 finals and solely shedding in 1961/1962, 1963/1964 and the aforementioned 1980/1981 ultimate (Inter Milan, Benfica and Liverpool).
4. In every of Real Madrid’s final 4 Champions League Winning Seasons they’ve had the highest scorer
Whilst for Liverpool and Chelsea (2019 and 2021), having the highest scorer was not crucial to successful the Champions League with Erling Haaland being high scorer in 2021 and Lionel Messi being high scorer in 2019, the facet with the highest scorer in all the opposite finals since 2013-2014 have performed for the successful facet.
You might make a case for this being that they performed extra video games than another facet however each finalists play the identical quantity of matches and but for Bayern Munich in 2020 (Robert Lewandowski with 15 targets) and Cristiano Ronaldo for each Champions League win for Real (2014, 2016, 2017 and 2018) with just one event in 2017, wherein he was high scorer earlier than the ultimate started, scoring twice to overtake Lionel Messi.
Messi was the highest scorer in 2015 for Barcelona after they beat Juventus 3-1 within the ultimate and so in six of the final eight seasons, the highest scorer has gained the Champions League.
With Karim Benzema on hearth with 7 targets in his final three Champions League matches and only one behind the knocked out Lewandowski and 4 away from Mohamed Salah, it seems very possible that Benzema could win the Golden boot.
This simply supplies extra historic proof that Real Madrid could declare their 14th Champions League trophy.
*When Liverpool gained the UCL in 2018/2019 their gamers scored much less targets than of their ultimate loss to Real Madrid (Salah was the highest scorer with 5, regardless of Firmino, Mane and Salah scoring 10 within the earlier season.
5. Should Liverpool and Real Madrid undergo it is going to be a repeat of the 2005-2006 state of affairs
A degree that will even apply to Villareal (see level 4 on Villarreal), the one time Villarreal have made the semi-final of the Champions League they misplaced to an English facet, Arsenal, that English facet then misplaced to a longtime energy in Spain (Barcelona) in a ultimate that befell in France.
Now this may increasingly appear to be a stretch however ought to Liverpool and Real Madrid win, the repeat of a Anglo-Spanish ultimate in France would happen and in that case, Real could be favourites based mostly on historical past.
It can be essential to notice that solely as soon as has an English facet overwhelmed a Spanish facet in a European Cup ultimate (1981: Liverpool beat Real Madrid) with English groups shedding 4 instances (Arsenal in 2006, Manchester United in 2009 and 2011 to Barcelona and Liverpool in 2018).
Furthermore, Real Madrid has by no means misplaced an all-Spanish ultimate (beating Valencia in 2000 and Atletico Madrid in 2014 and 2016), which additional helps their historic declare for the trophy as to lose to Villarreal could be historical past within the making.
Liverpool vs Villarreal (Semi-Final 2)
With Villareal’s shock win towards Bayern Munich, and Liverpool surviving a scare to beat Benfica 6-4 on combination. This is a repeat of the 2015-2016 Europa League semi-final, Klopp’s first European semi-final for the Reds.
Liverpool gained that semi-final. regardless of a 1-0 first leg loss in Spain as a 3-0 win at Anfield in May noticed the Reds by way of to the ultimate, which they finally misplaced 3-1 to Unai Emery’s Sevilla.
The face to face file between the 2 sides is simply that with the Europa League Semi-Final being the one video games they’ve performed towards one another.
With that being mentioned, I’ll now confer with details that will probably be a lift to either side and their followers as they appear to succeed in the Champions League Final in Paris on Saturday twenty eighth May.
Liverpool (sixth Champions League Semi-Final, twelfth European Cup Semi-Final)
- Liverpool’s semi-final file is improbable
In comparability, to Real Madrid, Liverpool don’t lose many European Cup semi-finals they’ve a 9-2 file within the competitors with solely two defeats (1964/1965 to Inter Milan and 2007/2008 to Chelsea), this additionally means they haven’t misplaced to a Spanish facet within the European Cup semi-finals, beating Barcelona 4-3 within the well-known 2018/2019 semi-final on path to successful the competitors, one other increase, because the final time they confronted a Spanish facet within the semi-finals resulted of their sixth title.
They additionally defeated the Catalan giants in 2000/2001 on path to the UEFA Cup of their well-known ‘treble’ successful season (League Cup, FA Cup and UEFA Cup) and within the 1975/1976 UEFA Cup semi-final earlier than defeating Club Brugge.
*Liverpool have by no means overwhelmed a Spanish facet in a semi-final earlier than happening to lose the ultimate
A disadvantage is their 2010/2011 Europa League semi-final loss by the hands of Atletico Madrid (who beat Fulham within the ultimate).
2. No facet has ever gained the Europa League after which the Champions League
Whilst Liverpool themselves gained the outdated UEFA Cup after which the European Cup in 1976 after which 1977, no facet has gained the UEFA Cup after which then Champions League.
Chelsea did the reverse in 2013 by beating Benfica within the ultimate, 12 months on from beating Bayern on the Allianz area, however no facet has completed it the opposite approach round.
The Blues have been really the closest making the semi-finals in 2014 earlier than shedding to Real Madrid, so not solely has no staff ever gained Europa League then Champions League, no staff has ever reached the ultimate of the Champions League, the season after successful the Europa League, which is an efficient omen for Liverpool followers.
3. The final time Liverpool have been some extent behind Manchester City, they gained outdated huge ears
Liverpool are presently only a level behind their rivals Manchester City (a rivalry that I imagine is a robust one as a result of energy of either side), when Liverpool obtained 97 factors within the 2018-2019 season, they completed one level wanting the 98 factors gained from Manchester City however on the 2nd June 2019, all that ache was wiped away with a 2-0 win over Tottenham Hotspur.
Many predicting, Liverpool and Manchester City to repeat the type of that season, with Man City not dropping a single level within the league since their 2-1 defeat to Newcastle on the twenty ninth January, which left the Reds seven factors clear (that means they gained their final 14 on the bounce) with Liverpool successful their final 9 after a 0-0 draw at Everton put them 1 level behind City.
If this sample is adopted then Manchester City will as soon as once more win the title by one level, however the final time that occurred Liverpool gained quantity six, so something is feasible.
4. Liverpool have already gained the European Cup in Paris
This looks as if a distinct segment stat and one which I keep in mind from Liverpool’s Allez Allez Allez chant ‘from Paris down to Turkey’
The aforementioned win was really towards Real Madrid in 1981 with Alan Kennedy scoring the winner within the second half.
I don’t know if I imagine in destiny however the probabilities of a repeat of that ultimate in the identical metropolis and similar stadium simply appears to strike me as a lift for Liverpool’s probabilities.
5. Liverpool’s away file within the Champions league this season has been phenomenal
Liverpool have didn’t win two video games within the Champions League this season, a 2-1 defeat to Inter Milan and a 3-3 draw to Benfica, however each video games have been performed at Anfield.
In their away video games, they’ve scored 15 targets in 5 matches (common of three) while solely conceding 5 (1 a sport) that is essential because the second leg is away from residence and while the widespread notion is that the Kop all the time roars the Scousers residence in huge European nights (with 1977 towards St Etienne, 2005 towards Olympiakos and Chelsea, 2016 versus Dortmund and 2019 towards Barcelona).
The undeniable fact that Liverpool have proven their larger capabilities away from residence, with them struggling of their two earlier ultimate runs (attracts with Sevilla away and losses to Barcelona, PSG, Napoli and the shock defeat to Red Star Belgrade). Liverpool have proven on huge nights away at Bayern Munich 3-1 and Porto (4-1) that they’ve succesful over earlier seasons however the consistency has been there this season.
They will fancy their probabilities ought to they get previous Villarreal as they haven’t misplaced an away knockout sport (apart from in Spain, since their loss in Kiev, 4 years in the past.)
- Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool have solely been knocked out by Spanish sides in Europe
Despite, Liverpool’s wonderful type of beating Spanish sides in semi-finals, they are going to be cautious that they’ve been knocked by Spanish sides in all of their failed campaigns in Europe.
They misplaced the Europa League ultimate in 2016 to Sevilla, the 2018 Champions Final to Real Madrid each ending 3-1. This was earlier than shedding within the controversial Covid-spreading second leg to Atletico Madrid.
Liverpool had been on a poor run of kind shedding to Watford 3-0 on the twenty ninth February to finish their unbeaten run within the Premier League earlier than struggling two losses in per week (1-0 to Atletico and 2-0 to Chelsea within the FA Cup) the house leg was marred by the after-effects with it being blamed for the unfold of Covid-19 within the space.
Liverpool took the lead by way of a Gini Wijnaldum header, to take the match into extra-time, Firmino’s extra-time objective was cancelled out by Adrian’s errors permitting for a Marcos Llorente brace and an Alvaro Morata sealer to ship the Champions out.
Last season, regardless of a poor run within the league which noticed the Reds drop from high at Christmas to eighth by March, the Redmen have been by way of to the quarter-finals after dispatching of RB Leipzig 4-0 within the final 16. They confronted a Real Madrid facet on the Spaniards coaching floor (because of Bernabeu upgrades.
The sport will probably be remembered for a Trent Alexander-Arnold mistake which let Vinicius Junior rating one among his two targets because the match completed 3-1, regardless of a courageous effort at Anfield, the 0-0 draw noticed them out.
With the probabilities of a repeat of the 2018 ultimate even when they get previous Villarreal, the ‘Spanish curse’ on Liverpool could make for good studying for Villarreal followers.
2. Unai Emery has expertise in successful European titles
Despite the standard of managers left within the competitors, Carlo Ancelotti, Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola, Unai Emery has gained essentially the most European titles, as a supervisor out of the lot of them.
Unai Emery has 4 Europa League titles, three with Sevilla (2014,2015,2016) and one with Villarreal (2021).
This is in comparison with Carlo Ancelotti’s three Champions Leagues (AC Milan: 2002-2003, 2006-2007 and Real Madrid: 2013-2014), Pep Guardiola’s two Champions League triumphs with Barcelona (2009 and 2011) and Jurgen Klopp’s solitary UCL win with Liverpool in 2019.
Emery has gained his trophies extra not too long ago than the opposite managers and is popping into an actual drive as a supervisor, regardless of his earlier failings at Arsenal, most notably he has gained three titles in a row which no different supervisor within the competitors can boast.
Whilst it’s possible you’ll level out that is the Europa League, the standard of his groups have been far lower than the groups he had overwhelmed alongside the best way beating Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool in 2016, and defeating Arsenal and Manchester United in 2021 on path to his victory within the Europa League final season.
The win towards Bayern Munich simply goes to indicate that these successes usually are not flukes are Unai Emery and his Villarreal facet are a drive to be taken very critically.
3. Unai Emery has the perfect Major European ultimate file out of the managers
Once once more the pedigree of Unai Emery supplies hope to Villarreal followers, he has solely ever misplaced one European ultimate, to Chelsea 4-1 throughout his ill-fated time at Arsenal. On the flip facet, he has gained 4 finals.
In distinction, Pep has solely gained two finals, shedding final season’s Champions League ultimate to Tuchel’s Chelsea, Klopp has misplaced three main finals, one to Emery and Sevilla, one to Zidane and Real Madrid and the 2012-2013 Champions League Final with Dortmund towards Bayern Munich at Wembley.
Ancelotti has misplaced the 2005 ultimate Champions League ultimate to Liverpool and the 2002/2003 ultimate to AC Milan (whereas at Juventus).
*Emery has by no means gained the Super Cup as a supervisor shedding to Real Madrid in 2014 and Barcelona in 2015 earlier than a loss to Chelsea in 2021.
4. The final two Champions League finals held in France have been gained by Spanish sides
While Liverpool could have gained the final Paris ultimate, Spanish sides have gained the 2 finals in France since with Real Madrid (1999-2000) and Barcelona (2005-2006).
In addition to this reality, is that the primary ultimate was an all-Spanish affair as Real Madrid beat Valencia in 2000 and the second was a Spanish beating an English facet who haven’t gained the trophy.
Barcelona defeated Arsenal, it’s most likely a coincidence however ought to a English facet (Man City) beat the Spanish facet (Real Madrid) which is what occurred in 2006 (Arsenal beat Villarreal) then it will be a Spanish facet, ought to Villarreal make it previous Liverpool towards an English facet who’ve gained zero European Cups (with the ultimate in France)
Like the 1981 ultimate comparisons this does strike me as a coincidence however the items are there for historical past to repeat itself.
5. They have by no means misplaced a Champions League Final
Centre-back Pau Torres, 25, pictured with the Europa League trophy
While this isn’t a stable argument because the final three new groups to make finals, Tottenham, PSG and Manchester City all misplaced, the purpose nonetheless stands.
They are not any to this and so they don’t have any worry as something they get now could be a bonus, while the remainder of the groups are anticipated to make the ultimate now, Villarreal are the darkish horse, the one facet with nothing to lose.
The facet has already knocked out Juventus and Bayern Munich and the arrogance from that is immense, the final facet to knock each these groups out have been Real Madrid who beat Juventus within the quarters, thanks to 3 targets from Cristiano Ronaldo, together with a final minute penalty (4-3 agg).
They then knocked out Bayern (4-3 agg) within the semi-final on path to beating Liverpool 3-1 within the 2018 ultimate.
This is an efficient omen for the Spanish facet and while it might grow to be a coincidence, the historical past as soon as once more helps their declare for Champions League glory.
Thank you for studying this very lengthy article, if something I hope you picked up that while stats and historical past do matter in Football, as a result of contradicting occasions in Football you may make a declare for any of those groups successful the Champions League.
I cannot make a prediction, based mostly on having a horse on this explicit race, however the semi-finals promise to convey as a lot pleasure because the quarter-finals that got here earlier than them.